Let’s get the obvious part out of the way: The potential merger of Netflix and Warner Brothers will be bad for “the industry.” Many jobs will be lost, and the number of films made for theaters could plummet. (Although Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos says they’re committed to releasing Warner Brothers films in theaters.)
That much is obvious, but there are a few (very small) reasons for hope. First, we need to differentiate between “the industry” and you. If you’re in Hollywood, counting on the current slate of big studio movies to make a living, yes this will be bad, and is only part of several indications the industry is headed in a bad direction. But you are not the industry. Even if you work in it.
The slow, continued collapse of the studio system could lead to more opportunities for independent filmmakers in theaters. With fewer big films, theaters may need to re-think their models. Perhaps something crops up to replace the theater/distributor relationship with a more direct filmmaker relationship. Perhaps more independent films, at a small budget, let’s say $5 million or less, will have a chance to make it on the big screen. A whole new class of film investors/supporters could come to see a new model, where the goal isn’t major studio distribution and all the money, time, and uncertainty that entails. Rather, we might be headed to a world where small movies, and perhaps small cinemas thrive. To be clear, when I say “thrive,” that’s not to say that some $3 million indie is going to replace a Marvel movie or gross a billion dollars. But relative to the shaky financials independents have found themselves in for years, this could be a golden age of sorts.
Yes, we might be in the last stretch of the multimillion dollar role for actors. But chances are you aren’t a multimillion dollar actor. (And if by some chance you happen to be, please consider giving to our Tip Jar.) You might be a new director hoping for a big break; this new model could offer a path forward. In some ways, it’s easier than ever to make a film, but harder than ever to get it sold/financed. If we move to a world with 30 $10 million movies, instead of one $300 million movie, financing could become easier, as the bar to recoup costs will lower. This isn’t a new idea, but the infrastructure has always been in place that studios could theoretically make back a billion dollars, when theaters were thriving. As that starts to fall apart, if the ceiling for a film’s earnings is $100 million, then the cost of films will have to come down. And I believe it will come down to a price that is unsustainable for the studio system. Again, bad for the industry, but you are not the industry.
If the use of words “could,” and “might” sprinkled throughout didn’t make it obvious, I realize these aren’t foregone conclusions. In fact, they aren’t even the most likely conclusions. But in a time of uncertainty, it can be healthy to spend some time on what might go right, especially with so much out of our control.
This could be a big opportunity for YOU. Because you are not the industry.